The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) rose 2.4% in September 2026 to 288.0, Dodge Construction Network reported on October 7. The gain is measured from August, which Dodge revised down to 281.3 from the 282.0 it first published. The index was 3.7% higher than in September 2025. The DMI tracks the value of nonresidential building projects entering planning, averaged over three months and scaled so that 2000 equals 100. September’s 288.0 is a first estimate. On revised figures it is the highest of the nine months from January through September, and it sits above the nine-month average of 269.7.
Planning value climbed back from its February low
Dodge Momentum Index, 2000 = 100, three-month moving value of nonresidential projects entering planning
| Month | First reported | Revised next month | Revision (points) | Monthly change as first reported | Year-over-year change as first reported |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2026 | 269.8 | ||||
| Feb 2026 | 250.0 | 246.2 | -3.8 | -7.3% | 18.7% |
| Mar 2026 | 250.5 | 248.8 | -1.7 | 1.8% | 25.8% |
| Apr 2026 | 264.2 | 260.4 | -3.8 | 6.2% | 14.1% |
| May 2026 | 275.7 | 277.1 | 1.4 | 5.9% | 33.8% |
| Jun 2026 | 271.7 | 273.0 | 1.3 | -1.9% | 21.8% |
| Jul 2026 | 291.7 | 283.0 | -8.7 | 6.9% | 11.7% |
| Aug 2026 | 282.0 | 281.3 | -0.7 | -0.4% | 4.2% |
| Sep 2026 | 288.0 | 2.4% | 3.7% |
What moved
The two halves of the index went different ways. Institutional planning grew 9.4% over the month, and commercial planning fell 1.3%. Sarah Martin, Dodge’s director of economic research, credited education, healthcare and government buildings for the institutional gain. Dodge says commercial planning picked up for retail stores, hotels, office buildings and parking garages, and that slower data center and warehouse planning more than offset those gains.
Over the year the split is wider. Institutional planning was up 17.2% from September 2025 and commercial planning was down 3.0%. Dodge also reports that the commercial segment would be down 14.9% year over year with data centers taken out, because data center planning surged in late 2025 and sets a high comparison. That ex-data-center figure has been negative in each of the last three releases.
| Measure | July 2026 | August 2026 | September 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial planning monthly change | 4.1% | -3.0% | -1.3% |
| Institutional planning monthly change | 13.1% | 4.9% | 9.4% |
| Commercial planning year over year | 13.8% | 2.3% | -3.0% |
| Commercial excluding data centers year over year | -16.2% | -18.9% | -14.9% |
| Institutional planning year over year | 7.6% | 7.8% | 17.2% |
So the year-over-year rate has dropped each month since May. It was 33.8% in May, 21.8% in June, 11.7% in July, 4.2% in August and 3.7% in September, each as first reported. On revised figures, the index has stayed between 273.0 and 288.0 since May. With the level that steady, the slowdown in the yearly rate comes from the comparison months, which in late 2025 carried the data center surge Dodge describes.
Dodge counted 45 projects valued at $100 million or more entering planning in September, up from 31 in August. Data centers still made up the largest commercial projects: the $480 million Project North in Jermyn, Pennsylvania, and two $473 million buildings, EDCAUS15 and EDCAUS16, in Bastrop, Texas. The three largest institutional projects were hospitals in the Carolinas, led by the $346 million Duke Raleigh Hospital addition in Raleigh. The $325 million Spartanburg Regional Heart & Vascular Hospital and the $319 million WakeMed Hospital in Wendell followed.
How to use this number
Dodge says the DMI leads nonresidential building construction spending by a full year to 18 months. If that lead holds, September’s planning value points to spending from late 2027 into early 2028. Martin’s own reading is that spending in these sectors should come in marginally stronger in late 2027. That is Dodge’s forecast, and the release gives no dollar figure for it.
Two ways to put it next to your own numbers:
- If your backlog leans institutional, compare the 17.2% year-over-year gain in institutional planning with your count of healthcare, education and public-building pursuits this year against last. A count that is flat while planning value is up 17.2% suggests the new work is reaching other bidders or has not yet reached the pursuit stage.
- If you build commercial work other than data centers, use the ex-data-center figure in place of the headline. At 14.9% below a year ago, it tracks the office, retail, hotel and warehouse planning that the headline folds in with data centers. Compare it with the year-over-year change in your private commercial bid invitations.
The DMI measures dollar value, so a few large projects can move it. Before you read a month as a turn in your market, check the project list in the release. Two Bastrop data centers at $473 million each account for $946 million of new planning value on their own. The site’s post on the August architecture billings index covers a design-stage indicator that leads by a shorter span, and the post on backlog in months shows how to set your own pipeline against an industry reading.
Revisions and caveats
September’s 288.0 is preliminary, and Dodge revises each month in the next release. This year the revisions have mostly gone one way:
- Dodge revised the prior month down in six of the eight releases from February through September and up in two, May and June.
- Where both readings are public, the revisions ranged from 0.7 points (August) to 8.7 points (July).
- July’s revision was the large one. Dodge first put July at 291.7, a 6.9% monthly gain, and cut it to 283.0 a month later.
September’s lead over August is 6.7 points, which is smaller than July’s revision. Read the 2.4% gain as provisional until the November release.
The table mixes vintages. The monthly and yearly percentage changes are as Dodge first published them, while the chart uses the revised levels. Because the index is a three-month moving value, September’s reading still carries projects that entered planning in July and August. The releases opened for this post do not say whether the index is seasonally adjusted or whether project values are adjusted for inflation. They also do not publish the underlying dollar totals, so the index can be compared only with itself. The chart starts in January 2026 because the releases opened for this run cover February through September, plus the revised January figure from the February release.